The year 2025 will be remembered as a year of “Global Shocks.” Geopolitical conflicts, environmental crises, and economic volatility converged to create powerful headwinds for global growth. However, these developments should not be viewed merely as short-term disruptions. Rather, they are warning signals that the world is entering a new era of “Extremes”—one in which the severity and frequency of disruptive events are expected to intensify throughout 2026, potentially triggering major structural shifts in the global economy and international trade.
1. Extreme Weather: Redefining the Nature of Unpredictable Risk
The world has moved beyond an era of simply “changing weather patterns” and into an era of “extreme weather.” Data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. This record-breaking trend has been accompanied by more than 150 unprecedented climate-related disasters worldwide.
Implications for Thailand: Thailand faces a rapidly escalating challenge. According to the Climate Risk Index 2026, Thailand’s climate risk ranking surged from 69th to 17th globally within a single year. This heightened vulnerability has direct implications for supply chains:
- Local Content: Agriculture and industries dependent on domestic raw materials face a higher risk of production disruptions caused by floods and droughts.
- Import Content: Businesses that rely on imported inputs face increasing logistics and delivery risks as overseas trading partners are also exposed to natural disasters.
2. Extreme Trade: New Rules in a Borderless Trade Battleground
In 2026, global trade is no longer governed by “price” and “quality” alone. Instead, businesses are increasingly operating within a complex landscape shaped by “tariff barriers and green trade regulations.” The World Trade Uncertainty Index has reached unprecedented levels, driven primarily by three major forces:
- Reciprocal Tariffs: Reciprocal tariff measures introduced by the United States are creating significant uncertainty around cost planning and long-term contractual commitments.
- Geopolitics-Driven Trade: The selection of trading partners is increasingly influenced by geopolitical considerations through friend-shoring. Thai exports may face increasingly stringent traceability requirements to determine whether products have direct or indirect links to geopolitical rivals or major powers involved in strategic conflicts.
- Green Protectionism: Environmental trade measures now number more than 22,000 worldwide, led by the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and similar measures expected to be introduced by other countries. These measures are increasingly becoming mandatory costs, encompassing both carbon-related charges and fees associated with compliance verification and certification.
Strategic Outlook: Although these developments present significant challenges, Thailand possesses a potential strategic advantage as a “Neutral Ground”—a country that does not necessarily align itself exclusively with one geopolitical bloc. If Thai exporters can rapidly strengthen supply-chain transparency and traceability, Thailand could position itself as a “Safe Haven” and a reliable sourcing alternative for buyers around the world.
3. Extreme Geopolitics: Disrupting Global Supply Chains
Geopolitical conflicts in 2026 are no longer merely political issues; they have become a form of “structural risk.” The rising Geopolitical Risk Index reflects an increasingly fragmented global order, with economic and political blocs becoming more clearly divided. The World Economic Forum